As we will see in this newsletter, the war in Iran is reviving the possibility of a crash in AI infrastructure almost everywhere in the world, except, curiously, in the United States.
But this news has been overshadowed by a great rationalization of services carried out by the two market leaders, OpenAI and Anthropic, with reversals of fortune nobody would have imagined last year.
Three things are happening at the same time.
- First, the economics of data centers are no longer what investors were promised. The infrastructure bubble is starting to show, and the war in Iran has just accelerated the timeline.
- Second, the business parameters between OpenAI and Anthropic are shifting. Number two may be on its way to becoming number one.
- Finally, the success of agentic AI is changing the parameters of the AI ecosystem. Google and Microsoft are facing an innovator's dilemma, not over the cloud, nor the OS, nor search, but over office suites.
The great reorganization under way is therefore unlikely to ease off.
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